Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi recently angered Nigeria when he suggested that Nigeria should be divided into several states along ethnic lines (BBC News - Gaddafi says Nigeria should split into several states) after apparently initially suggesting a Muslim and a Christian state should be created. Colonel Gaddafi, no stranger to controversy and being called ‘mad’, is also a supporter of the ‘United States Of Africa’ and is reported to have said "I shall continue to insist that our sovereign countries work to achieve the United States of Africa," in his inaugural speech as Chairman of the African Union (see Gaddafi urges pan-African state). Maybe he has given up on the idea after failing to get African leaders to seriously consider the idea for so many years.

But Gaddafi is not the only one to recognise that Africa’s problems stem from the borders drawn by colonists as they carved up Africa between them. One of Africa’s great business leaders, Sudan-born magnate Mo Ibrahim is reported to have said ‘Many African countries are too small to continue to exist independently’ (see 'Africa must think big to thrive'). He, however, was speaking economically rather than politically.

What the colonists failed to realise, or they did and ignored it anyway, is that the natural barriers that serve well as the borders in Europe ran through the middle of communities in Africa. The same tribes lived on both sides of the river, the same family members may have lived and survived on both sides of a mountain range and so these borders created countries where members of the same tribe and family may be a majority in one country and a minority in one or even two neighbouring countries, a recipe for disaster which they would find out about many years later.

The opposition to the Gadaffi’s idea for Nigeria follows the line “Nigeria fought a blood-soaked civil war between 1967 and 1970 – the Biafran war – which cost the lives of between one and two million people. Therefore to suggest that all the work that has been done over the past 40 years to keep the country together should be tossed into the rubbish bin …..” (see Gaddafi's Nigerian gaffe), could easily be the same argument against the United States of Africa. Many African states fought wars against the colonialists for independence, why would they then carve up the land? It is a pity because if our African leaders had the vision then, we could have avoided every tribe related conflict that has held Africa back for decades.

Religion - Islam and Christianity, adds a new dimension to conflict in Africa. Nigeria is not the only country in Africa where the two religions have to exist side by side sometimes causing actual conflict. Both West and East Africa have substantial Islamic communities – sometimes within what can be regarded as the same tribe. However, Africa can be divided between the Arab North African countries, predominately Muslim, and sub-Saharan Africa. This situation lends itself to a natural division of two big African states – The Arab African Confederation and the African Federation – both would be big enough to compete in the world market. In fact, the Northern state would rapidly be a world power if we continue with our love affair with the ‘black’ gold.

Note I suggested federations rather than a single country. Other counties with fairly autonomous local government – such the federal system in the USA usually result in a more harmonious government, not necessarily the best, but more harmonious. You can then draw your provinces/state borders along more natural tribal/cultural lines so that local laws reflect local requirements but with everyone understanding they are African and working for all their common good. After all, the majority of them in the wider southern African state are ultimately Bantu with similarities in language and customs. People can be proud to be Shona (tribe) as well as be proud to be Zimbabwean (state) and ultimately African (nationality). If the Americans can be like that, so certainly can the Africans.

Europe is an exception to the rule but even they have through the European Community recognise the strength of ‘scale’ as described by Mr Ibrahim. Larger states with larger markets, bigger work forces in which talent is available to a wider range of economic activity is the route to prosperity. Additionally maybe it can find the best African political minds from such a large pool to run such a super state. Brazil is a shining example that what was once regarded as a Third World country, of what can be achieved. It has someway to go to eradicate poverty but it has the strength to do it now.

They say there is a thin line between madness and genius and maybe Colonel Gadaffi may fit in one or both categories but he does say things that many intellectual Africans will have discussed in small circles but are afraid to say out loud to those whose vested interests are in maintaining the status quo. Maybe it would be taken more seriously if it was not Gaddafi who vocalised these issues?

Radical thinking is needed in Africa or it will be doomed to being China’s poor supplier rather than a partner from many decades to come.

[First published on my NotTheNews blog on specified date]